Luke Mullin and Amie Just break down Nebraska men’s basketball’s win over Wisconsin and give their thoughts on what it means for Fred Hoiberg’s future at Nebraska.
Recruiting rankings are no guarantee of a player’s success. At the very least, though, they are useful in identifying the year-to-year talent level present in school’s recruiting classes.
Evaluating a 12-year period of recruiting classes from 2010-2021 and the ensuing year’s results among Power 5 schools should reveal how predictive recruiting rankings are of on-field success. And while real-life factors are far more complex than simple numbers, some schools live up to the billing.
Theoretically, the school that averaged the best recruiting class over this 12-year period should also lead the nation in wins. Alabama did just that, with 151 to its name. But, there are plenty of surprises among the list. Wake Forest, the Power 5 school with the worst recruiting classes, outperformed its expectation by 20 spots as it landed 45th in wins over the period.
The nation’s biggest underperformer from this period was Tennessee, which ranked No. 14 in recruiting thanks to four top-10 classes over this period. On the field though, the Volunteers had five losing seasons and finished No. 41 in wins among Power 5 schools. California, which recruited well in the early 2010s, finishes second-worst followed by Nebraska as the nation’s third-largest underachiever.
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One of the most consistent schools in its recruiting level, Nebraska’s recruiting classes finished between 15th and 25th in 10 of the 12 years. Nebraska’s win totals are no surprise, with its recent downturn of losing seasons dropping it to No. 43 in wins, two spots below ultimate underachiever Tennessee.
Three schools with top-10 recruiting classes on average were among the biggest disappointments — Florida (6th), Auburn (7th) and Texas (10th) all land far below their expected win totals. All three teams cycled through head coaches over this period, unable to continue the reach same heights of their national championship seasons from 2005-10.
Bill Snyder, take a bow. Despite Kansas State recruiting at a level that lands them as the fourth-worst among Power 5 schools, the Wildcats finished 22nd in wins with just two losing seasons over this period. Meanwhile, in-state rival Kansas finished with the fewest wins among Power 5 schools (26) despite out-recruiting Kansas State by six spots.
The other bad news for Nebraska is that four of its competitors in the Big Ten West find themselves among the biggest overachievers. Most of Wisconsin’s recruiting classes finished in the 30s and 40s, yet the Badgers were among the top 10 leaders in wins over this period in addition to multiple Big Ten West division titles.
Iowa’s level of consistency under Kirk Ferentz is also impressive considering the Hawkeyes only averaged the No. 42 recruiting class. Pat Fitzgerald’s ability to turn otherwise unrecruited prospects into consistent starters at Northwestern also lands the Wildcats on the list, and they’d be even higher among the overachievers if not for a recent downturn in success.
The final inclusion from the Big Ten West is Minnesota, whose recruiting classes never finished higher than 50th nationally prior to PJ Fleck being hired. Since then, Minnesota has been recruiting at a top-40 level, while an 11-win season in 2019 helps as well.
Along with Alabama at No. 1, there are several other Power 5 schools that performed exactly as expected relative to their recruiting rankings. Mississippi State (No. 26), Virginia Tech (No. 29), Texas Tech (No. 48), Georgia Tech (No. 49), Purdue (No. 58) and Illinois (No. 63) all finished with the same recruiting rankings and win totals.
Luke Mullin
An Omaha native and University of Nebraska-Lincoln graduate, Luke reports on Nebraska football and baseball. Luke is in his fourth year with the Journal Star and previously covered prep sports.
